Book Review, The Fourth Turning...

The Fourth Turning
What the Cycles of History Tell Us
About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny.

The Fourth Turning

What the Cycles of History Tell Us

About America's Next Rendevous with Destiny.

Authors: Willian Strauss and Neil Howe

Publ: Broadway Books, 1997

ISBN: 0-553-06682-X

This is a fascinating overview of the history of our society from the perspective of what are the past cycles that have governed our lives, and what information can we get from them to give us some idea of what can be expected in the future.

The authors make the argument that the past five centuries of Western Society have exhibited a very set of consistent cycles - the main period they call a saeculum, after a Latin word (which is in turn derived from an Etruscan concept of "a long human life"), or a period of roughly eighty to one hundred years. Each saeculum is divided into four "turnings," each about twenty years. These "turnings" are described as follows -

• The First Turning is an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individuals, when a new civic order develops and the values of an old regime fade away. Another term for this era is "High."
• The Second Turning is a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. Another term for this era is an "Awakening."
• The Third Turning is a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the civic order decays and new values become accepted. Another term for this era is an "Unraveling."
• The Fourth Turning is a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values from the Third Turning begin to replace the old civic order. Another term for this era is a "Crisis."

The book further looks at the influences various generations within each turning have on the social events in their time by defining the following pattern of "generational archetypes" -

• A "Prophet" generation is typically born during a First Turning.
• A "Nomad" generation is typically born during a Second Turning.
• A "Hero" generation is typically born during a Third Turning.
• An "Artist" generation is typically born during a Fourth Turning.

Each archetype is an expression of one of the main life-cycle myths of mankind. And the overlay of these archetypes into the saeculum explains much of the current attitudes of a particular time. And why the authors maintain that history has so many repeating cycles.

This book gives an interesting brief overview of our societial perceptions of time, with examples from various historians, such as Toynbee's cycles that began with various wars -

Cycle	Description	Dates
Overture	The Italian Wars	1494 - 1525
First cycle	Imperial Wars by Phillip II	1568 - 1609
Second cycle	Spanish Succession War	1672 - 1713
Third cycle	French Revolutionary War	1792 - 1815
Fourth cycle	World Wars I & 2	1914 - 1945

Toynbee further identified similar cycles in ancient Chinese and Hellenistic history, each of which typically lasted some 95 years, i.e., the saeculum again.

Several historians further identified usually four subcyles, often called "seasons of life", as follows -

Author	First	Second	Third	Fourth
	Quarter	Quarter	Quarter	Quarter
Wright	Peace	Minor wars	Peace	Major wars
Toynbee	Breathing space	Supplementary wars	General peace	General wars
Rosecrance	Decreased involvement	Power vacuums	Increased involvement	War
Ferrar Jr.	Probing wars	Adjusting wars	Probing wars	Hegemonic wars
Hopkins, et al.	Hegemonic maturity	Declining hegemony	Ascending hegemony	Hegemonic victory
Modelski, et al.	World power	Delegitimization	Deconcentration	Global war
Strauss, et al.	High	Awakening	Unraveling	Crisis

The series of Anglo-American saeculae go back to the end of the Middle Ages, and is defined as follows -

Period	Dates
Late Medieval	1435 - 1487
Reformation	1487 - 1594
New World	1594 - 1704
Revolutionary	1704 - 1865
Civil War	1794 - 1865
Great Power	1865 - 1946
Millenial	1946 - 2026(?)

To apply the subcycles to these saeculae -

	First Turning	Second Turning	Third Turning	Fourth Turning
	(High)	(Awakening	Unraveling	Crisis
Generation
Entering:
Elderhood	Nomad	Hero	Artist	Prophet
Midlife	Hero	Artist	Prophet	Nomad
Young adulthood	Artist	Prophet	Nomad	Hero
Childhood	Prophet	Nomad	Hero	Artist
Saeculae	Description	Description	Description	Description
Late Medieval			Retreat from	Wars of
			France	Roses
			(1435 - 1439)	(1459 - 1487)
Reformation	Tudor	Protestant	Intolerance,	Armada
	Renaissance	Reformation	Martyrdom	Crisis
	(1487 - 1517)	(1517 - 1542)	(1542 - 1569)	(1569 - 1594)
New World	Merrie	Puritan	Reaction,	Glorious
	England	Awakening	Restoration	Revolution
	(1594 - 1621)	(1621 - 1649)	(1649 - 1673)	(1673 - 1704)
Revolutionary	Augustan	Great	French,	American
	Empire	Awakening	Indian Wars	Revolution
	(1704 - 1727)	(1727 - 1746)	(1746 - 1773)	(1773 - 1794)
Civil War	Good	Trancendental	Mexican	Civil
	Feelings	Awakening	War	War
	(1794 - 1822)	(1822 - 1844)	(1844 - 1861)	(1860 - 1863)
Great Power	Reconstruction	Third Great	World War I	Depression
	Gilded Age	Awakening	Prohibition	World War II
	(1865 - 1886)	(1886 - 1908)	(1908 - 1929)	(1929 - 1946)
Millenial	American	Consciousness	Culture	Millenial
	High	Revolution	Wars	Crisis
	(1946 - 1964)	(1964 - 1984)	(1984 - 2003)	(2003 - 2026)

Overall, a very interesting review of the history of Western Civilization which wraps up with a full chapter devoted the authors' suggestions to prepare for the "Preparing for the Fourth Turning," i.e., 2003 - 2026.

Reviewed by E. Stiltner
Copyright (©) 2000

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